#covid19 #cornavirus

This looks like a connection to me.

It is known that Covid-19 comes with a severe development of blood clots. The virus, when not fought back by the immune system upon its entry in the nose and throat, spreads downwards the windpipe to the lung where it creates inflammation of the lung cells. This already may create severe respiratory conditions. But its the overreaction of the imune system that tries to fight the infection of the lung's air sacks, thereby creating a "cytokine storm" in which the body attacks itself in form of a body-wide inflammatory process which can result in multiple organ failure.

Via the lungs the virus may enter the circulatory system and get into all veins, thereby attacking the heart and the blood vessels, creating blood clots, heart attacks, cardiac inflammation. A significant numer of patients develops clots in the arteries and in the heart. The consequence can be heart attacks and strokes. It fits that all the younger patients (20s to 40s) who have recently been hospitalized with a stroke tested positive on covid-19.

But the main phenomenon is that patient with covid-19 not just develop cardiac inflammation and blood clots, but that the clots appear in all places of the body. The small vessels of the bowel, the liver, the kindeys, the veins in the legs and arms... all begin to be choked with clots. The clotting may become so severe that covid-19 patients who require dialysis have their catheters clotting off quickly and continously.

The inflammation of the cardiac system may also be a reason why there recently has been a significant spike in "Kawaski syndrome" in very young children in Italy and the UK. "Kawaski syndrome" develops for hitherto unknown reasons and produces an inflammation of the walls of the blood vessels of the child and, even when treated, may have lasting heart conditions.

This may all be very anecdotal, but if covid-19 shows this bodywide spread of inflammation and blood clotting, then thromboses, pulmonary embolisms, strokes, heart attacks, liver-, bowel- and kidney failures may all be the consequence of this autoimmune overreaction.

This continuous severe blood clotting doesn't remind me of the movie "Contagion" (2011) but far more of the movie "The Andromeda Strain" (1971).

Melissa Davey, " 'How is this possible?' Researchers grapple with Covid-19's mysterious mechanism"

Joseph Goldstein, "15 Children Are Hospitalized With Mysterious Illness Possibly Tied to Covid-19"

So not just Italy and the UK, but France, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, and now the U.S. report cases of #Kawasaki or Kawasaki-like syndromes in children.

Interventions proved effective to bend the curve of exponential growth in #covid19

Spread of #coronasvirus in closed rooms like restaurants very much depend on air flow due to air conditioning and ventilation.

What if not #covid19 itself is the main problem but the severe cytokine release syndrom (CRS) it seems to trigger? Could patients with severe covid19 and CRS survive if one could treat or (partly) inhibit the CRS? And do people have mild symptoms of covid19 because in them a CRS is not triggered? May covid19 be even not much else than a label for this specific CRS?

How #SARSCoV2 #coronavirus works to be so destructive:

• Jonathan Corum & Carl Zimmer, "Bad News Wrapped in Protein: Inside the Coronavirus Genome"

• Sharon Begley, "‘It’s something I have never seen’: How the Covid-19 virus hijacks cells"


[both h/t @lnxw48a1 ]

Ian Sample, "Warning of serious brain disorders in people with mild coronavirus symptoms"

Antibodies in both asymptomatic and symptomatic #covid19 patients in convalescence may fade quickly (in 2 to 3 months) and thus dampen the hope for a longer lasting immunity against the virus.¹

That doesn't necessarily mean that recovering patients are not immune for a longer time because although few antibodies are found the T-cells of the immune system may still have been informed to fight another outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus ( #coronavirus ) in the body.²

But should quick reinfection be possible and immunity last only a few weeks, then the hope for an efficient vaccine to produce longlasting immunity (or herd immunity in general) may be in wane. And that could mean that we may "never again" "reopen" societies and economies to the levels prior to the pandemic, i.e., 2020.

Imagine: We could not reopen societies and economies for (say) the next 5 years. What would that imply? Besides the most welcome impacts on (and for) the environment?

¹ Robert Roos, "Chinese study: Antibodies in COVID-19 patients fade quickly"

² Apoorva Mandavilli, "You May Have Antibodies After Coronavirus Infection. But Not for Long."

(Both articles link to the research papers in the scientific journals.)

Ian Sample, "Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests"

« There are four other types of coronavirus in widespread circulation, which cause the common cold. “One thing we know about these coronaviruses is that people can get reinfected fairly often,” said Prof Stuart Neil, a co-author on the study. “What that must mean is that the protective immunity people generate doesn’t last very long. It looks like Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, might be falling into that pattern as well.”

Prof Jonathan Heeney, a virologist at the University of Cambridge, said the study confirmed a growing body of evidence that immunity to Covid-19 is short-lived. “Most importantly, it puts another nail in the coffin of the dangerous concept of herd immunity,” he said.


But Prof Arne Akbar, an immunologist at UCL, said antibodies are only part of the story. There is growing evidence, he said, that T cells produced to fight common colds can protect people as well. Those patients who fight the virus with T cells may not need to churn out high levels of antibodies, he added. »

@lnxw48a1 @simsa03
>...then the hope for an efficient vaccine to produce longlasting immunity (or herd immunity in general) may be in wane.

I have some bad news, I ran the numbers about a week ago and for the US to get to 50% - 83% "herd immunity" at the then rate of current infection rate of ~345k/week (not really a “controlled” rate), it will take 470 weeks (9.03 years) for 50% to 785 weeks (15.09 years) for 83%.

We are going to be in this a long time.

The math:
minyears = ((((country population-deaths)*50%)-people already infected)/weekly infection rate)/weeks in a year

I read similiar dire predictions for Europe.

Sweden as of 4 weeks ago, had a rate of 14% of people tested over 6 weeks in the Stockholm area to show antibodies. Still pretty low given the country's decision not to lock down places, shops, and restaurants.



Only 5K dead by the middle of June? I realize that Sweden's population is much smaller than the US population, but it sounds much better than 100K dead.

It may sound better but it's misleading. In both mortality ratio and case-fatality ratio (and in the respective rates) Sweden is worse off than the U.S.

Right now the mortality rate¹ (deaths compared to total population) in Sweden is higher than in the U.S.: 5k deaths to 10 million Swedish citizens and 135k deaths to 328 million U.S. citizens amounts to Sweden 0,05% and the U.S. 0,041% ²

In a similiar way the case-fatality rate (deaths compared to total number of infected people) in Sweden is 6,6%, in the U.S. 4,0%.³

If Sweden had roughly the same population size like the U.S., its death toll would be about 150,000 right now:

5,000 : 10,000,000
50,000 : 100,000,000 x 3
150,000 : 300,000,000

BTW: The U.S: case-fatality rate of roughly 4,0% looks even *lower* than the German one with roughly 4,6%. (Caveat because of possible different survey methods.)


¹ Obviously we're playing with numbers here. The mortality rate needs to be set against a specific period of time (e.g., a year); and one cannot simply compare numbers of one country with those of others given different survey methods, etc. But it's still informative to see that the U.S. looks, at least for now, to fare better than Sweden. Which is not much consolation. And which seems on its way to change anyway as the number of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden is dropping

² Sweden: 5,000 / 10,000,000 = 0,0005 x 100 = 0,05%
U.S.: 135,000 / 328,000,000 = 0,00041 x 100 = 0,041%

³ Sweden: 5,000 deaths / 76,000 cases = 0,066 x 100 = 6,6%
U.S. : 135,000 deaths / 3,300,000 cases = 0,04 x 100 = 4,0%

Thinking about the numbers of mortality rates and case-fatality rates in the U.S. vs. Sweden (and Germany) due to #covid19 , I note that, the terrible number of casualties notwithstanding, the U.S. is pretty much in the normal range of infections and deceased:

Mortality rate (deaths in relation to total population):
Sweden 0,05%
U.S. 0,041%
Germany 0,01%

Case-fatality rate (deaths in relation to total number of verified infections):
Sweden 6,6%
Germany 4,6%
U.S. 4,0%

Not that I want to play down the number of deceased in the U.S., but I don't remember hearing / seeing any such comparison that points out the rather "normal" number of cases in the U.S. Instead more or less fullblown panicked focus on the rise in infections and deceased in media like CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo, Axios, Politico, TheHill, etc. Strange.

I was surprised by the numbers for the U.S. as well.

Peter Fimrite, "With coronavirus antibodies fading fast, vaccine hopes fade, too"

Toni Luise Meister et al., "Virucidal Efficacy of Different Oral Rinses Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2"

« Recent studies suggested the significance of throat and salivary glands as major sites of virus replication and transmission during early coronavirus disease 2019, thus advocating application of oral antiseptics. However, the antiviral efficacy of oral rinsing solutions against SARS-CoV-2 has not been examined. Here, we evaluated the virucidal activity of different available oral rinses against SARS-CoV-2 under conditions mimicking nasopharyngeal secretions. Several formulations with significant SARS-CoV-2 inactivating properties in vitro support the idea that oral rinsing might reduce the viral load of saliva and could thus lower the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. »

« Microbiology found the world's first documented #COVID19 reinfection case.

This suggests that "immunity can be short-lasting after natural infection" & "#SARSCoV2 may persist in the global human population" like common-cold related #coronaviruses. »

RTHK, "Re-infection 'makes Covid battle that much harder' "